【truck repair loans】Dover Corporation (NYSE:DOV): What’s The Analyst Consensus Outlook?
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The latest earnings update Dover Corporation (
NYSE:DOV
) released in December 2018 signalled that the company experienced a substantial headwind with earnings declining by -27%. Below, I’ve laid out key growth figures on how market analysts view Dover’s earnings growth trajectory over the next few years and whether the future looks brighter. Note that I will be looking at net income excluding extraordinary items to get a better understanding of the underlying drivers of earnings.
Check out our latest analysis for Dover
Analysts’ outlook for this coming year seems optimistic, with earnings increasing by a robust 20%. This growth seems to continue into the following year with rates reaching double digit 32% compared to today’s earnings, and finally hitting US$766m by 2022.
NYSE:DOV Future Profit February 1st 19
While it’s informative understanding the growth rate each year relative to today’s figure, it may be more valuable determining the rate at which the company is moving on average every year. The benefit of this method is that we can get a better picture of the direction of Dover’s earnings trajectory over the long run, irrespective of near term fluctuations, be more volatile. To compute this rate, I put a line of best fit through analyst consensus of forecasted earnings. The slope of this line is the rate of earnings growth, which in this case is 11%. This means that, we can anticipate Dover will grow its earnings by 11% every year for the next few years.
Next Steps:
For Dover, I’ve put together three pertinent aspects you should further examine:
Financial Health
: Does it have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our
free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks
on key factors like leverage and risk.
Valuation
: What is DOV worth today? Is the stock undervalued, even when its growth outlook is factored into its intrinsic value? The
intrinsic value infographic in our free research report
helps visualize whether DOV is currently mispriced by the market.
Other High-Growth Alternatives
: Are there other high-growth stocks you could be holding instead of DOV? Explore
our interactive list of stocks with large growth potential
to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at
.
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As shown below, the results in the quarter materially changed the trend in two-year stacked comps for each of the banners, along with a significant acceleration for consolidated comps.
The increase in consolidated comps was the primary driver of an 8% increase in revenues to $6.3 billion. The company ended the quarter with 15,370 locations, up less than 1% year-over-year. This reflects a 7% increase in Dollar Tree units, offset by a 4% decline in Family Dollar units.
The top-line results at each banner flowed through to their respective income statements, with Dollar Tree gross margins and operating margins declining year-over-year while Family Dollar gross margins and operating margins expanded year-over-year. On a consolidated basis, gross margins contracted by 120 basis points in the quarter to 28.5%, reflective of a shift to lower-margin consumables, tariff costs and the impact of markdowns from the Easter headwinds at the Dollar Tree banner. The company saw slight operating leverage on SG&A from higher comps, with the net result being an 80 basis point contraction in operating margins to 5.8%, with operating income declining 5% to $366 million. This is not adjusted for $73 million of pandemic-related costs, such as PPE supplies.
In the first quarter, the company opened 85 stores (net of closures) and completed 220 Family Dollar renovations to the H2 format. Importantly, comps at renovated Family Dollar stores continue to outpace the chain average by more than 10%. On the call, management indicated that they plan on reducing both the number of new store openings (from 550 to 500) and the number of H2 renovations (from 1,250 to 750) in 2020.
Personally, given the fact that Family Dollar is seeing material benefits to its business from the pandemic with new or lapsed customers coming into its stores, I think the company should try to get more aggressive with its renovation plans, not less. On the other hand, you could argue that renovations cause short-term disruptions and limit their ability to fully capitalize on the business momentum they are currently experiencing.
As a result of fewer new stores and remodels, management now expects 2020 capital expenditures to total $1.0 billion compared to previous guidance of $1.2 billion. In addition, the company has temporarily suspended share repurchases. At quarter's end, the company had $1.8 billion in cash on its balance sheet compared to $4.3 billion in total debt.
Conclusion
In recent years, Dollar Tree has been a tale of two cities. While its namesake banner has generally delivered impressive financial results, Family Dollar has been a persistent underperformer. This quarter, those results flipped, and given what we've seen in the weeks since quarter's end, there's a decent possibility that we will see something similar in the coming months. As the CEO noted, the second quarter is off to a very good start at Family Dollar.
Here's the important question: how useful is that information is in terms of making future predictions about the business? Will recent success at Family Dollar translate into long-term success for the banner? The optimistic take is that new or lapsed customers, especially those visiting the renovated stores, could become recurring business for the banner. The pessimistic take is that they have experienced short-term success out of necessity as people went to any store that was open to try and find essentials like toilet paper and hand sanitizer that were largely out of stock throughout the retail landscape. From that view, many of these customers could abandon the retailer when life returns to normal. As Philbin noted on the conference call, early on [during the pandemic], folks needed us. Will people still shop as much at Family Dollar when it's no longer a necessity?
Personally, I do not place too much weight on the recent results. I will need to see incremental data points that indicate that Family Dollar has truly won sustained business from these new customers. While I still believe that the Dollar Tree banner is a well-positioned retailer with attractive unit returns, I'm not yet willing to say the same thing for Family Dollar. For that reason, along with the recent run-up in the stock price, I plan on staying on the sidelines for now.
Disclosure: None
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